By Barry Rubin
In a major new development an Islamic force has arisen to challenge the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and support a more moderate regime in that country. This is a surprising opponent but the only one that could be of significance: al-Azhar University. Why is Egypt's Islamic establishment taking on Egypt's Islamists? Simple: survival and self-interest.
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Showing posts with label Islamists. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Islamists. Show all posts
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
The People Have Voted and Barack Obama Is NOT The Next “Muslim Idol”
This article is published on PajamasMedia.
By Barry Rubin
Wow. How can anybody continue to spout nonsense about how President Barack Obama's policies and endless attempts to make Muslims and Arabs love America are succeeding or are even useful in light of this new Pew poll.
Here are the findings. The analyses following the numbers are mine:
1. Are you favorable toward Obama?
Jordan, 13 percent; down 12 points since he took office. The Muslim Brotherhood and Palestinians (there's an overlap) hate him and the "East Bankers," that is the non-Palestinians don't trust him to support the continued existence of the monarchy.
Turkey; 10 percent; down 4 points. This reflects the efforts of the Islamist government to incite massive anti-Americanism despite the fact that Obama never criticizes and only praises the regime.
Pakistan; 11 percent, down 5 points. This is, of course, despite billions in aid he has given even though Pakistan has sponsored terrorism against India while helping al-Qaida leaders escape capture.
Lebanon; 49 percent, down 6 points. The relatively high figure here no doubt expresses the hope of Sunni Muslims, Christians, and Druze who oppose Syria and Hizballah that Obama would help them. He hasn't and won't.
Egypt; 20 percent, down 7 points. Despite his helping them to overthrow their government that was allied to the United States, there's no gratitude. The Muslim Brotherhood is about four times more popular than Obama and it stands for jihad against America. (Its leaders say so even if the American media and "experts" ignore it.)
Palestinians, 18 percent, up 3 points, which is not very impressive given all his efforts and tilt toward them.
In other words, everything Obama has done: the Cairo speech, super-sensitivity toward Islam, support for Arab revolts, distancing the United States from Israel--has had no effect, indeed, a negative effect.
2. Asked, do you sympathize with ”Islamic fundamentalists” or their opponents, Muslims replied:
Pakistan: 47 to 15. Pro-Islamist. One day that nuclear-weaponed country might blow up in a way that would make Egypt look like a picnic.
Palestinians: 37 to 23. Pro-Islamist. Keep that in mind if there’s an election battle between Fatah and Hamas. We are constantly told that Fatah is more popular because it has raised living standards. Don't bet on that. In the Middle East, never underestimate the power of ideology and the appeal of militancy as against material self-interest.
Jordan: 35 to 37 About even. Encouraging. Note that this has been one of the quietest countries this year. Presumably this reflects strong "East Banker" support for the monarchy.
Egypt 31 to 30. About even. Encouraging but the problem is that the Islamists are well-organized and energetic while their opponents are not. No serious nationalist or moderate democratic party has been formed yet, with only about three months to go before the parliamentary election! In other words, even if they were to get, for example, "only" 30 percent of the vote they could win an even higher portion of seats, running in many cases against divided "non-Islamist" blocs and multiple rival candidates.
Turkey 24 to 45. Anti-Islamist. But perhaps the problem is that they don’t see the current government and the ruling AK party as Islamist. That's why a lot of "anti-Islamists" will vote for a stealth Islamist party in the June 12 election.
Israeli Muslims, 23 to 27. About even. The nationalists and Communists are still powerful among Arab citizens. That’s still a scary number but remember the number of "pro-Islamists" in Israel's population is only about five percent of the total (that is about one-quarter of 18 percent Muslims in the population). In these other countries the population is 90 percent (Egypt) to 99 percent (everywhere else) Muslim.
Let me paraphrase (in my own words) Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the fabulously popular Muslim Brotherhood spiritual guru: Usama bin-Ladin was stupid. Of course we should demand and run in elections because we’ll win.
On the U.S. and European side, no amount of Islamophilia--aid money, flattery, moving away from Israel, helping people overthrow pro-Western regimes, praising Muslim accomplishments in space exploration, and so on--will change the Middle East political scene or even the public opinion polls in a positive direction.
There’s lots more of interest in the poll.
Note: The title is a play on the "American Idol" slogan. And yes I'm aware of the irony in the phrase "Muslim Idol." But, of course, Muslims favor the breaking of idols.
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, and a featured columnist at PajamasMedia http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/ His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is http://www.gloria-center.org. His PajamaMedia columns are mirrored and other articles available at http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com/.
By Barry Rubin
Wow. How can anybody continue to spout nonsense about how President Barack Obama's policies and endless attempts to make Muslims and Arabs love America are succeeding or are even useful in light of this new Pew poll.
Here are the findings. The analyses following the numbers are mine:
1. Are you favorable toward Obama?
Jordan, 13 percent; down 12 points since he took office. The Muslim Brotherhood and Palestinians (there's an overlap) hate him and the "East Bankers," that is the non-Palestinians don't trust him to support the continued existence of the monarchy.
Turkey; 10 percent; down 4 points. This reflects the efforts of the Islamist government to incite massive anti-Americanism despite the fact that Obama never criticizes and only praises the regime.
Pakistan; 11 percent, down 5 points. This is, of course, despite billions in aid he has given even though Pakistan has sponsored terrorism against India while helping al-Qaida leaders escape capture.
Lebanon; 49 percent, down 6 points. The relatively high figure here no doubt expresses the hope of Sunni Muslims, Christians, and Druze who oppose Syria and Hizballah that Obama would help them. He hasn't and won't.
Egypt; 20 percent, down 7 points. Despite his helping them to overthrow their government that was allied to the United States, there's no gratitude. The Muslim Brotherhood is about four times more popular than Obama and it stands for jihad against America. (Its leaders say so even if the American media and "experts" ignore it.)
Palestinians, 18 percent, up 3 points, which is not very impressive given all his efforts and tilt toward them.
In other words, everything Obama has done: the Cairo speech, super-sensitivity toward Islam, support for Arab revolts, distancing the United States from Israel--has had no effect, indeed, a negative effect.
2. Asked, do you sympathize with ”Islamic fundamentalists” or their opponents, Muslims replied:
Pakistan: 47 to 15. Pro-Islamist. One day that nuclear-weaponed country might blow up in a way that would make Egypt look like a picnic.
Palestinians: 37 to 23. Pro-Islamist. Keep that in mind if there’s an election battle between Fatah and Hamas. We are constantly told that Fatah is more popular because it has raised living standards. Don't bet on that. In the Middle East, never underestimate the power of ideology and the appeal of militancy as against material self-interest.
Jordan: 35 to 37 About even. Encouraging. Note that this has been one of the quietest countries this year. Presumably this reflects strong "East Banker" support for the monarchy.
Egypt 31 to 30. About even. Encouraging but the problem is that the Islamists are well-organized and energetic while their opponents are not. No serious nationalist or moderate democratic party has been formed yet, with only about three months to go before the parliamentary election! In other words, even if they were to get, for example, "only" 30 percent of the vote they could win an even higher portion of seats, running in many cases against divided "non-Islamist" blocs and multiple rival candidates.
Turkey 24 to 45. Anti-Islamist. But perhaps the problem is that they don’t see the current government and the ruling AK party as Islamist. That's why a lot of "anti-Islamists" will vote for a stealth Islamist party in the June 12 election.
Israeli Muslims, 23 to 27. About even. The nationalists and Communists are still powerful among Arab citizens. That’s still a scary number but remember the number of "pro-Islamists" in Israel's population is only about five percent of the total (that is about one-quarter of 18 percent Muslims in the population). In these other countries the population is 90 percent (Egypt) to 99 percent (everywhere else) Muslim.
Let me paraphrase (in my own words) Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the fabulously popular Muslim Brotherhood spiritual guru: Usama bin-Ladin was stupid. Of course we should demand and run in elections because we’ll win.
On the U.S. and European side, no amount of Islamophilia--aid money, flattery, moving away from Israel, helping people overthrow pro-Western regimes, praising Muslim accomplishments in space exploration, and so on--will change the Middle East political scene or even the public opinion polls in a positive direction.
There’s lots more of interest in the poll.
Note: The title is a play on the "American Idol" slogan. And yes I'm aware of the irony in the phrase "Muslim Idol." But, of course, Muslims favor the breaking of idols.
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, and a featured columnist at PajamasMedia http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/ His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is http://www.gloria-center.org. His PajamaMedia columns are mirrored and other articles available at http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com/.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Surprise! Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Seeks Islamist Dictatorship
This article is published in PajamasMedia. The text is presented here for your convenience.
By Barry Rubin
It shouldn't be a surprise that the Muslim Brotherhood wants an Islamist state in Egypt. After all, that's been its goal since the organization was founded almost 75 years ago, a goal from which it is never deviated for one minute.
Yet some people are shocked, shocked, to see revolutionary Islamism going on. Still, something positive may come out of the Brotherhood leaders' loose lips.
Two Brotherhood leaders, Mahmoud Ezzat, the deputy Supreme Guide, and Saad al-Husseiny, announced the group's two-stage strategy, though I'm expressing it here in my words:
Phase one: Use its new Freedom and Justice Party to build a broad base of support. Do well in a couple of elections. take 30 percent of parliament, lay the basis for an Islamist state in the new constitution.
Phase two: Use anti-Western and anti-Israel demagoguery, preach Islamism in every possible way, indoctrinate young people, watch as a more secular regime fails, and then establish a radical Islamist state with the full array of special punishments, killing of converts, jihad against Israel, etc.
As always happens with Islamists, success breeds arrogance. The Brotherhood was trying to pretend moderation--a tactic that has worked brilliantly with Western journalists--and keep its mouth shut. But once things started looking good, its leaders couldn't stop themselves from bragging about their future total triumph.
Meanwhile, France's Foreign Minister Alain Juppe has announced that France is ready to talk to all Muslim Brotherhood groups. There are two particular problems here. First, using logic to analyze the foreign minister's position goes like this:
--France's government says that the country will talk with all groups that have renounced violence.
--France's government says that the country will talk with all Muslim Brotherhood groups.
--Therefore, France's government says that all Muslim Brotherhood groups have renounced violence.
The last statement is, of course, untrue. The Egyptian and Jordanian Muslim Brotherhoods--and one coud add the Palestinian Brotherhood, better known as Hamas, too--have not renounced violence. They openly and daily advocate violence against Israel, and the Egyptian Brotherhood has also called for jihad against the United States.
Concluding that the Brotherhood is now a pacifist group thus totally discounts any threat from it.
Second, Juppe said--in words that echoed Obama--that France was fooled by Arab leaders (Egypt? Jordan? Saudi Arabia?) who said that revolutionary Islamists were a threat. "We believed them," Juppe explained, "and now we can see the result."
So the Brotherhood is non-violent, non-threatening, and doesn't seek a radical Islamist regime. That's a basis for disaster if used by Western policy to set strategy in the Middle East. And that's precisely what most Western decisionmakers seem to think.
But something good may come from this. With the Brotherhood acting arrogant, other groups are uniting against it. This candor might well weaken the Islamists over the next year or so, though their longer-term prospects for seizing power are still very real.
By Barry Rubin
It shouldn't be a surprise that the Muslim Brotherhood wants an Islamist state in Egypt. After all, that's been its goal since the organization was founded almost 75 years ago, a goal from which it is never deviated for one minute.
Yet some people are shocked, shocked, to see revolutionary Islamism going on. Still, something positive may come out of the Brotherhood leaders' loose lips.
Two Brotherhood leaders, Mahmoud Ezzat, the deputy Supreme Guide, and Saad al-Husseiny, announced the group's two-stage strategy, though I'm expressing it here in my words:
Phase one: Use its new Freedom and Justice Party to build a broad base of support. Do well in a couple of elections. take 30 percent of parliament, lay the basis for an Islamist state in the new constitution.
Phase two: Use anti-Western and anti-Israel demagoguery, preach Islamism in every possible way, indoctrinate young people, watch as a more secular regime fails, and then establish a radical Islamist state with the full array of special punishments, killing of converts, jihad against Israel, etc.
As always happens with Islamists, success breeds arrogance. The Brotherhood was trying to pretend moderation--a tactic that has worked brilliantly with Western journalists--and keep its mouth shut. But once things started looking good, its leaders couldn't stop themselves from bragging about their future total triumph.
Meanwhile, France's Foreign Minister Alain Juppe has announced that France is ready to talk to all Muslim Brotherhood groups. There are two particular problems here. First, using logic to analyze the foreign minister's position goes like this:
--France's government says that the country will talk with all groups that have renounced violence.
--France's government says that the country will talk with all Muslim Brotherhood groups.
--Therefore, France's government says that all Muslim Brotherhood groups have renounced violence.
The last statement is, of course, untrue. The Egyptian and Jordanian Muslim Brotherhoods--and one coud add the Palestinian Brotherhood, better known as Hamas, too--have not renounced violence. They openly and daily advocate violence against Israel, and the Egyptian Brotherhood has also called for jihad against the United States.
Concluding that the Brotherhood is now a pacifist group thus totally discounts any threat from it.
Second, Juppe said--in words that echoed Obama--that France was fooled by Arab leaders (Egypt? Jordan? Saudi Arabia?) who said that revolutionary Islamists were a threat. "We believed them," Juppe explained, "and now we can see the result."
So the Brotherhood is non-violent, non-threatening, and doesn't seek a radical Islamist regime. That's a basis for disaster if used by Western policy to set strategy in the Middle East. And that's precisely what most Western decisionmakers seem to think.
But something good may come from this. With the Brotherhood acting arrogant, other groups are uniting against it. This candor might well weaken the Islamists over the next year or so, though their longer-term prospects for seizing power are still very real.
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