By Barry Rubin
It took 2.5 years, months of massive revolutionary upheaval, and a violent attack on the embassy in Damascus but U.S. policy toward Syria is finally changing. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remarked:“President [Bashar al-] Assad is not indispensable and we have absolutely nothing invested in him remaining in power….”Our goal is to see that the will of the Syrian people for a democratic transformation occurs.”
Hooray! Hooray! Oops! For despite this major step forward, the Obama Administration can’t stop itself from setting up a new potential disaster. For how are they going about this regime transition effort? Why, with Syria’s neighbor, Turkey. The regime thinks it can create a sphere of influence for itself in Syria. In other words, Turkish interests (as defined by the regime) and American interests in Syria are diametrically opposed! Obama is relying on a mediator who will support an Islamist state in Syria or at least one dominated by Islamist forces.
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Showing posts with label U.S. policy and Syria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label U.S. policy and Syria. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Monday, July 11, 2011
News Flash: Syrian Regime Mob Attacks U.S. Embassy
By Barry Rubin
In Damascus, a mob organized by the Asad regime attacked the U.S. and French embassies in Damascus. The French guards fired into the air and the demonstrators stopped; the U.S. Marines didn’t fire and the mob surged into the embassy breaking windows and wrecking at least part of the building.
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In Damascus, a mob organized by the Asad regime attacked the U.S. and French embassies in Damascus. The French guards fired into the air and the demonstrators stopped; the U.S. Marines didn’t fire and the mob surged into the embassy breaking windows and wrecking at least part of the building.
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Thursday, June 23, 2011
Syria: U.S. Officials President Obama Should--But Doesn't--Listen To
For the full text of all my articles in PajamasMedia go here.
By Barry Rubin
“The international experience of dealing with Bashar [Assad] gave us no confidence to trust his words. We suspected he would employ excuses, trickery and delays.” [Jeffrey Feltman, then U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, quoted in Michael Young, The Ghost of Martyrs Square, p.52.] Feltman is now the assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs. Since he became president, Obama has praised Assad, congressional leaders have called him a reformer; U.S. policy has given him one concession after another, and refused to call for his downfall.
By Barry Rubin
“The international experience of dealing with Bashar [Assad] gave us no confidence to trust his words. We suspected he would employ excuses, trickery and delays.” [Jeffrey Feltman, then U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, quoted in Michael Young, The Ghost of Martyrs Square, p.52.] Feltman is now the assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs. Since he became president, Obama has praised Assad, congressional leaders have called him a reformer; U.S. policy has given him one concession after another, and refused to call for his downfall.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Western Failure to Support the Real Freedom Fighters in the Middle East Is A Disgrace
By Barry Rubin
Anthony Shadid, the New York Times' pro-Islamist correspondent, writes an article on the "resignation" of Rami Makhlouf from the Syrian regime without finding him involved in any actual corruption. This is like writing an article on former Rep. Anthony Weiner and mentioning in one sentence that some claim he uses social media. It's easy to provide a detailed account of Makhlouf's depredations but here he emerges as a sort of sympathetic figure, his resignation as proof that the Asad dictatorship is listening to the masses.
But there's nothing funny about events in Syria. Recently, a Syrian dissident friend wrote me, "People are being massacred and nobody cares a damn." In a real sense, it is tragic that he's right. Yes, the Obama Administration is now saying "tough" things about the Syrian regime and putting on the minimum sanctions, but in the face of mass shootings and torture, it amounts to nothing. Compare this to the media and administration outrage against Israel, or the demand for the immediate resignation of Egyptian President Husni Mubarak for far fewer crimes and in the face of a much less significant uprising.
Read more
Anthony Shadid, the New York Times' pro-Islamist correspondent, writes an article on the "resignation" of Rami Makhlouf from the Syrian regime without finding him involved in any actual corruption. This is like writing an article on former Rep. Anthony Weiner and mentioning in one sentence that some claim he uses social media. It's easy to provide a detailed account of Makhlouf's depredations but here he emerges as a sort of sympathetic figure, his resignation as proof that the Asad dictatorship is listening to the masses.
But there's nothing funny about events in Syria. Recently, a Syrian dissident friend wrote me, "People are being massacred and nobody cares a damn." In a real sense, it is tragic that he's right. Yes, the Obama Administration is now saying "tough" things about the Syrian regime and putting on the minimum sanctions, but in the face of mass shootings and torture, it amounts to nothing. Compare this to the media and administration outrage against Israel, or the demand for the immediate resignation of Egyptian President Husni Mubarak for far fewer crimes and in the face of a much less significant uprising.
Read more
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Syria Murders Hundreds; "Pro-`Arab Spring'" West Yawns or Supports Syrian Regime
This article is published on PajamasMedia.
By Barry Rubin
The situation in Syria is terrible. Hundreds of people have been shot; others arrested and tortured. And yet after weeks of demonstrations and repression the West has done nothing. True, the U.S. government has shifted from defending the dictatorship to scolding it mildly. Big deal.
How ironic. President Barack Obama extolls the “Arab Spring,” helps overthrow the Egyptian and Tunisian governments, made a try to do so in Bahrain (until the State Department talked the White House out of it), and is still trying in Yemen and in Libya (with military intervention!) yet does nothing on Syria, the most repressive by far of all these countries (except Libya).
So, here’s how the Middle East works. As an Arab friend writes to me:
“Everyone, whether anti- or pro-regime, is convinced that the U.S. government is protecting [Syrian dictator] Bashar al-Assad and wants him to stay. The longer this administration stands by its incredibly stupid position telling him to "lead the transition" as he kills and tortures at will, it will be stained by his obscenity.”
In other words, when the U.S. government defends the Assad regime the people believe it supports the Assad regime. Every principle set down by the Obama Administration on Egypt and elsewhere—whether right or wrong—is being violated by that same government in Syria!
Here’s an example, for those with a strong stomach, about what’s going on in Syria:
And the Syrian oppositionists correctly believe that they aren’t getting any international support. Palestinian groups that have practiced terrorism for decades are treated as saints and victims; the Syrian people (and Iranian, Turkish, and Lebanese oppositions, too) are treated like pariahs. Western students do nothing for them; Western students and activists don’t protest on their behalf.
Why do only anti-Western movements and opponents of governments friendly to the West get Western support?
The White House even rightly accused Syria of letting protesters cross through closed military zones to let them attack Israel's borders in order to distract from its repression of protesters at home. The White House spokesman said, "Such behavior is unacceptable."
But apparently it is acceptable to the White House.
After all, the Washington Post states in an editorial:
"The administration said ten days ago that it would `adjust ... relations with Syria according to the concrete actions undertaken by the Syrian government.' Since then Syrian troops have invaded more cities and killed scores more people. Now the regime has provoked violence with Israel. Has the time not yet come for an `adjustment’?”
No. Two weeks after this editorial and almost a month since promising to do something on Syria, the administration shows no sign of altering a Middle East policy mainly defined as being nice to the West's enemies and nasty to its friends. What's particularly noteworthy is that we aren't just talking about Israel but also: democratic oppositions in Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey; as well as the governments of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the smaller Gulf states. This Obama Administration is an equal opportunity unreliable friend.
And what does Israel’s government think about Syria?
The Syrian government is not exactly popular in Israel. There have been times in the past when Israeli policymakers thought Syria might stabilize the Lebanon-Israel border. But this expectation has never really worked out. So nobody’s thought like that for many years.
There are three reasons why Israel has "accepted" the Assad regime. First, it couldn't do anything to change the situation. Second, it viewed the regime's continuation as inevitable. And third Israel worries that a revolutionary Islamist regime would replace it and make the regional situation even worse.
Bottom line:
Israel doesn't have any options to affect Syria's internal politics. Purely as an observation, Assad will probably survive. Israel will lobby neither for nor against Assad's fall. But Israel must be prepared since--as we just saw with the Nakba day events--he will heat up anti-Israel activities to distract attention from his problems and legitimize his regime.
These have been observations, not plans for action. Israel has never lobbied with anyone to preserve or protect the current Syrian regime. Assad hasn't needed "help" to maintain the support, or at least toleration, he has received from the West. Israel's political capital is precious and won't be wasted on an issue where action isn't needed and would make no difference.
If Israel believed that a moderate democratic regime--or at least one that wouldn't attack it and sponsor terrorism against it--would emerge Israel certainly wouldn't oppose such an outcome.
But Assad is likely to survive both because of his own ruthlessness and the West’s shameful behavior. Warsaw, 1944; Budapest, 1956; Prague, 1967; meet Damascus, 2011.
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, and a featured columnist at PajamasMedia http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/ His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is http://www.gloria-center.org. His PajamasMedia columns are mirrored and other articles available at http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com/.
By Barry Rubin
The situation in Syria is terrible. Hundreds of people have been shot; others arrested and tortured. And yet after weeks of demonstrations and repression the West has done nothing. True, the U.S. government has shifted from defending the dictatorship to scolding it mildly. Big deal.
How ironic. President Barack Obama extolls the “Arab Spring,” helps overthrow the Egyptian and Tunisian governments, made a try to do so in Bahrain (until the State Department talked the White House out of it), and is still trying in Yemen and in Libya (with military intervention!) yet does nothing on Syria, the most repressive by far of all these countries (except Libya).
So, here’s how the Middle East works. As an Arab friend writes to me:
“Everyone, whether anti- or pro-regime, is convinced that the U.S. government is protecting [Syrian dictator] Bashar al-Assad and wants him to stay. The longer this administration stands by its incredibly stupid position telling him to "lead the transition" as he kills and tortures at will, it will be stained by his obscenity.”
In other words, when the U.S. government defends the Assad regime the people believe it supports the Assad regime. Every principle set down by the Obama Administration on Egypt and elsewhere—whether right or wrong—is being violated by that same government in Syria!
Here’s an example, for those with a strong stomach, about what’s going on in Syria:
And the Syrian oppositionists correctly believe that they aren’t getting any international support. Palestinian groups that have practiced terrorism for decades are treated as saints and victims; the Syrian people (and Iranian, Turkish, and Lebanese oppositions, too) are treated like pariahs. Western students do nothing for them; Western students and activists don’t protest on their behalf.
Why do only anti-Western movements and opponents of governments friendly to the West get Western support?
The White House even rightly accused Syria of letting protesters cross through closed military zones to let them attack Israel's borders in order to distract from its repression of protesters at home. The White House spokesman said, "Such behavior is unacceptable."
But apparently it is acceptable to the White House.
After all, the Washington Post states in an editorial:
"The administration said ten days ago that it would `adjust ... relations with Syria according to the concrete actions undertaken by the Syrian government.' Since then Syrian troops have invaded more cities and killed scores more people. Now the regime has provoked violence with Israel. Has the time not yet come for an `adjustment’?”
No. Two weeks after this editorial and almost a month since promising to do something on Syria, the administration shows no sign of altering a Middle East policy mainly defined as being nice to the West's enemies and nasty to its friends. What's particularly noteworthy is that we aren't just talking about Israel but also: democratic oppositions in Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey; as well as the governments of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the smaller Gulf states. This Obama Administration is an equal opportunity unreliable friend.
And what does Israel’s government think about Syria?
The Syrian government is not exactly popular in Israel. There have been times in the past when Israeli policymakers thought Syria might stabilize the Lebanon-Israel border. But this expectation has never really worked out. So nobody’s thought like that for many years.
There are three reasons why Israel has "accepted" the Assad regime. First, it couldn't do anything to change the situation. Second, it viewed the regime's continuation as inevitable. And third Israel worries that a revolutionary Islamist regime would replace it and make the regional situation even worse.
Bottom line:
Israel doesn't have any options to affect Syria's internal politics. Purely as an observation, Assad will probably survive. Israel will lobby neither for nor against Assad's fall. But Israel must be prepared since--as we just saw with the Nakba day events--he will heat up anti-Israel activities to distract attention from his problems and legitimize his regime.
These have been observations, not plans for action. Israel has never lobbied with anyone to preserve or protect the current Syrian regime. Assad hasn't needed "help" to maintain the support, or at least toleration, he has received from the West. Israel's political capital is precious and won't be wasted on an issue where action isn't needed and would make no difference.
If Israel believed that a moderate democratic regime--or at least one that wouldn't attack it and sponsor terrorism against it--would emerge Israel certainly wouldn't oppose such an outcome.
But Assad is likely to survive both because of his own ruthlessness and the West’s shameful behavior. Warsaw, 1944; Budapest, 1956; Prague, 1967; meet Damascus, 2011.
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, and a featured columnist at PajamasMedia http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/ His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is http://www.gloria-center.org. His PajamasMedia columns are mirrored and other articles available at http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com/.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Great Moments in American Diplomacy: Getting Killer Dictators to Have An “Alternative Vision” of Themselves
This article is published in PajamasMedia.
Please be subscriber 22,089 (daily reader 39,689). Put email address in upper right-hand box: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com
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By Barry Rubin
I don’t have to write anything to make fun of current U.S. Middle East policy. All I have to do is quote administration officials.
Here’s the New York Times:
“One administration official said that some national security officials were hoping that even if Mr. Assad stayed in power, he would move away from the alliance with Iran because so many of the Sunni protesters wanted to see an end to that alliance. `There are some who think that because of that, Assad would have to back away,’ the official said.”
See! You thought people were demonstrating either for democracy or for Islamism. Actually, they are demonstrating because they want the regime to distance itself from Iran!
No doubt they were chanting: Hey! Hey! Bashar al-A! How much have you distanced yourself from Iran today!
Unfortunately, demonstrators in Egypt really do want their country to distance itself from America.
And now here’s Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Atlantic:
“JG: One thing I didn't understand was this Bashar al-Assad moment, when you called him a reformer, or said he was being seen by others as a reformer. There is always going to be plasticity or strategic hypocrisy in the way you have to deal with the world. But shouldn't we be blowing some of these winds of change in the direction of Damascus and Tehran as well?
“Clinton: We don't have to blow. The winds are blowing. There's no stopping them. And what we have tried to do with him is to give him an alternative vision of himself and Syria's future. So when a number of the members of Congress who have gone over to Syria come back and say both publicly and privately, `We think he really wants to reform, but he's trying to put together the political pieces to be able to do that,’ I think it's worth reminding him of that…Thus far, it doesn't look like it's heading in the right direction. But there was certainly a lot of hope that he would begin to introduce the kinds of reforms that would help Syria get ahead of the curve. “
Where to begin? Whether or not current U.S. foreign policy “blows” is a question I will leave to others. The idea of giving Syrian dictator President Bashar al-Assad an “alternative vision” of himself is a job for his therapist, not the United States. There is no evidence that Bashar ever wanted to make reforms and you sound as if you feel sorry for him. You didn’t feel sorry for Mubarak, that’s for sure.
Yet Bashar is a man who backs Hamas and Hizballah; murdered former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri; and trains, finances, and helps Iraqi terrorists to kill Americans.
Let me put it this way:
Bashar understands public relations. He knows how to pretend he's moderate. He has created a cadre of apologists in academia and the media who follow the line from Damascus. Bashar also has wined and dined members of Congress into believing he's a wonderful human being. And his wife has been written up in fashion and fashionable magazines.
In other words, he’s like Usama bin Ladin but a lot smarter, more subtle, and better-dressed.
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, and a featured columnist at PajamasMedia http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/ His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is http://www.gloria-center.org. His PajamaMedia columns are mirrored and other articles available at http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com/.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Syria: Killing Americans, Murdering Syrians, Allied with al-Qaida. It’s a No-Brainer: The Regime Must Go
This article is published on PajamasMedia. The text is presented here for your convenience.
Please be subscriber 22,058 (daily reader 39,668). Put email address in upper right-hand box: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com
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By Barry Rubin
I merely transcribe the lead paragraph in today’s (May 7) Washington Post:
“Syrian troops used heavy machine guns and artillery to quell anti-government demonstrations in the key city of Homs on Friday in a sharp escalation of their crackdown against regime opponents, as tens of thousands of Syrians again defied the threat of bullets and tanks to take to the streets around the country.”
The article goes on to report “pitched battles in several neighborhoods” and 24 deaths due to firing into unarmed crowds of peaceful demonstrators.
What does the White House say? It “condemns and deplores” the violence, mass arrests, and human rights violations. It threatens to “adjust” U.S. policy toward Syria and issues sanctions against a handful of those directly involved in the violence. And it talks vaguely of a “strong” response and urges the Syrian dictatorship to make reforms.
This policy is a national disgrace. I have no doubt that the Obama Administration’s behavior toward the uprising in Syria and Iran will in future be strongly condemned. The exquisite sensitivity toward America’s enemies compared to the harsh treatment of its friends must come to an end.
Aside from everything else consider one simple point that is publicly known beyond any question:
Syria’s government has allied itself and helps in every way terrorists in Iraq who have killed hundreds of Americans. And those terrorists belong to al-Qaida. Remember them? The group until recently headed by Usama bin Laden that carried out the September 11 attacks. This is also the strongest and most significant remaining al-Qaida member group.
There is no excuse for President Obama not to utter six simple words: The Assad dictatorship must go now.
Please be subscriber 22,058 (daily reader 39,668). Put email address in upper right-hand box: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com
We need your contribution. Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card: click Donate button: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com. Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
By Barry Rubin
I merely transcribe the lead paragraph in today’s (May 7) Washington Post:
“Syrian troops used heavy machine guns and artillery to quell anti-government demonstrations in the key city of Homs on Friday in a sharp escalation of their crackdown against regime opponents, as tens of thousands of Syrians again defied the threat of bullets and tanks to take to the streets around the country.”
The article goes on to report “pitched battles in several neighborhoods” and 24 deaths due to firing into unarmed crowds of peaceful demonstrators.
What does the White House say? It “condemns and deplores” the violence, mass arrests, and human rights violations. It threatens to “adjust” U.S. policy toward Syria and issues sanctions against a handful of those directly involved in the violence. And it talks vaguely of a “strong” response and urges the Syrian dictatorship to make reforms.
This policy is a national disgrace. I have no doubt that the Obama Administration’s behavior toward the uprising in Syria and Iran will in future be strongly condemned. The exquisite sensitivity toward America’s enemies compared to the harsh treatment of its friends must come to an end.
Aside from everything else consider one simple point that is publicly known beyond any question:
Syria’s government has allied itself and helps in every way terrorists in Iraq who have killed hundreds of Americans. And those terrorists belong to al-Qaida. Remember them? The group until recently headed by Usama bin Laden that carried out the September 11 attacks. This is also the strongest and most significant remaining al-Qaida member group.
There is no excuse for President Obama not to utter six simple words: The Assad dictatorship must go now.
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, and a featured columnist at PajamasMedia http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/ His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is http://www.gloria-center.org/. His PajamaMedia columns are mirrored and other articles available at http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com/.
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